September 04, 2003

What is a probability?

P9040031a.JPG

The classical definition:

P9040033a.JPG

The following result is often described as the "Law of Large Numbers."

P9040034a.JPG

Whatever a probability is, it has to satisfy the above postulates. These postulates do not rule out people having different ideas about probabilities.

The Law of Large Numbers is what makes the sample mean a good estimate of the population expected value.

P9040032a.JPG

A first pass at conditional probability:

P9040035a.JPG

A first pass at Bayes' Theorem:

P9040036a.JPG


Posted by bparke at 12:26 AM